How to Invest in Gold: Six Options to Consider
Gold Forecast and News
Gold embarks on a consolidative phase around $3,300
Gold prices maintain a consolidative theme around the $3,300 mark per troy ounce, en route to clock decent weekly gains after two consecutive retracements. In the meantime, the precious metal is expected to remain under scrutiny on the back of trade concerns and the likelihood that the Fed might cut rates later in the year.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, this week's repeated failures to build on the momentum beyond the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart warrant some caution for the XAU/USD bulls. The said barrier is currently pegged near the $3,352-3,355 area and should act as a key pivotal point. This is closely followed by the overnight swing high, around the $3,365-3,366 region, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $3,400 round figure.
On the flip side, the $3,326-3,325 area now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,311-3,310 region and the $3,300 round figure. A convincing break below the latter might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the slide to the next relevant support near the $3,270 horizontal zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards retesting the monthly swing low, around the $3,248-3,248 region.
Fundamental Overview
Traders dialled back expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in July following the release of a stronger-than-expected US jobs report. This, in turn, is seen as acting as a tailwind for the USD. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone holds back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Nevertheless, the Gold price remains on track to end in the green for the first time in three weeks. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the upside.
Gold price sticks to gains as US fiscal concerns undermine USD
The US Dollar touched a one-week high on Thursday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, beating forecasts of 111,000. Adding to this, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1%, from 4.2% in May, and dashed hopes of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Other details of the report showed that wage growth, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, slowed to 0.2% in June from 0.4% previously and retreated to 3.7% from 3.8% in May. This helps to ease inflation concerns and keeps the door open for at least two 25 basis points rate reductions by the end of this year.
US President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill cleared its final hurdle in Congress on Thursday. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the legislation will add $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt. This could further worsen America’s long-term debt problems, which caps the USD and supports the Gold price.
Meanwhile, Trump said that he plans to start sending letters informing trading partners of their tariff rates as soon as Friday, as negotiations to avoid higher US levies enter the final stretch. His comments come days before the July 9 deadline for steeper reciprocal tariffs and further act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
US markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day, warranting caution before placing aggressive bets around the XAU/USD amid the holiday-thinned liquidity. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to snap a two-week losing streak and the supportive fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Recovery remains shallow as markets don’t expect Fed rate cut in July Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) started the week on a firm footing and registered gains for three straight days before losing its momentum once it became clear that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) isn’t likely to cut interest rates soon.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD keeps the constructive stance, still below 1.1800
EUR/USD maintains a tight range around 1.1780 and continues to be on pace to finish the week with a decent increase. Due to the cautious market position, the pair's potential for extra gains appears limited as the deadline for US tariffs approaches. In the meanwhile, markets in the United States remain closed to observe the July 4th holiday.
GBP/USD treads water around 1.3650
The British Pound alternates gains with losses on Friday, prompting GBP/USD to gyrate around the mid-1.3600s amid thin trade conditions and scarce volatility following the inactivity in the US markets. Meanwhile, investors remain watchful regarding the recent tensions in the UK political landscape.
USD/JPY slumps to near 144.30 as Yen’s safe-haven demand increases
The USD/JPY pair falls over 0.4% to near 144.30 during European trading hours on Friday. The pair faces a sharp selling pressure as the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen has increased significantly, with investors turning cautious over the deadline of United States reciprocal tariffs on July 9.
Gold embarks on a consolidative phase around $3,300
Gold prices maintain a consolidative theme around the $3,300 mark per troy ounce, en route to clock decent weekly gains after two consecutive retracements. In the meantime, the precious metal is expected to remain under scrutiny on the back of trade concerns and the likelihood that the Fed might cut rates later in the year.
WTI wobbles around $66 as Trump’s tariff deadline looms large
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades cautiously near $66.00 during the European trading session on Friday. The Oil price struggles to hold its recent recovery from the weekly low of $64.00 as investors turn cautious regarding the energy demand post the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by United States President Donald Trump, following the deadline on July 9.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 XAU/USD forecast!
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
